A Bloomberg Opinion commentary republished by CNA says there is little chance of genuine negotiations to end Russia’s war on Ukraine before winter, even as Moscow presses for a three-way summit.
Marc Champion writes that the possible meeting of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping around the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation gathering on 18–19 November in southern China is causing concern in Ukraine and among America’s traditional allies. Putin has sought the summit for some time, including in a 9 October phone call with the US president. The Kremlin says preparations are under way.
One attraction for Moscow, the piece argues, is that Ukraine and Europe — the targets of Russian aggression — would be excluded from the wider deal Putin wants. This week US Special Envoy for Peace Missions Steve Witkoff delivered an updated ceasefire proposal prepared with Ukrainian and European leaders in Oslo. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov dismissed it as lacking substance and said Russia might resume lower-level talks next month, before the possible summit.
Champion writes that Putin believes his advantage in the long-range air war will leave him next spring with a reduced Ukraine that has either capitulated or been left in ruins, and that he would count either result as a win. The commentary says Trump has set aside evidence of daily Russian attacks on civilian targets. Trump said Russia was “fine” on Ukraine and “hasn’t been doing much”. Witkoff, who met Putin on Wednesday 21 October, praised him as “a humanitarian”.
Two days before that meeting, one of Putin’s Shahed-style loitering munitions — weapons that circle until they lock onto a target — killed six people in a park in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. The dead included a one-year-old girl in a stroller, her mother and two other children. Fourteen more people, including other children, were wounded.
The commentary says Putin’s aim since the 2022 invasion has been not only to seize territory but to reshape Europe’s security order so Russia can restore influence across the continent. Russian state-controlled media have treated a possible meeting in Shenzhen as a second Yalta. Champion argues that even a purely symbolic three-way meeting could distract from the invasion and its risk of wider escalation in Europe while doing nothing to stop the war, which would serve only Putin. He notes that Trump has tried to steer any summit agenda toward nuclear arms control rather than Ukraine or spheres of influence.